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The Oscars: a No Bullshit Look
March 8, 2010 by Nick Salyers
Filed under Features, Opinion
The Oscars are a joke. It’s just a way for the cinema elite to throw a huge party, spend a ton of money, and pat each other on the back, and when it boils down to it, unless you’re in “the club” you aren’t going to win, period. Risky movies, movies in the wrong genre, and independent movies, will not win. Period. Chances are, though, if you’re reading this, you already agree with me on that, so I won’t waste more of your time there.
Instead, in this article, we’re going to look at the nominees for the 2010 Cinemasturbation Awards, and determine who was nominated, who will win, who could potentially pull off the upset, who should win, and, occasionally, an unnominated deserving candidate, for the biggest categories that will receive attention tonight (but definitely not the technical awards that are done, unrecorded, on Saturday, that no one ever hears about, because fuck those awards).
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air
Dances With Smurfs, Explosive Ordinance Disposal, and the 2010 iteration of Animated-Feel-Good-Dramadey.
Winner: Avatar
Is anyone really surprised by this? Avatar would have won even before it came out. I won’t go into the details on why I detest Avatar, because it’s be covered before by better writers than I, but I’ll simply say, I’m not a fan. Chances of winning: 95%
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Another movie that people can’t seem to shut the fuck up about. Though I haven’t seen it, The Hurt Locker is often compared to Dr. Strangelove, itself a brilliant film. The difference is, The Hurt Locker is a politically charged movie without any politics in it. If you’re going to be a satirical commentary, you have to have satire, and if you want to be a serious take on a serious war, you may want to try mentioning it. Chances of winning: 5%
Hindsight is 20/20 Update: Though The Hurt Locker somehow won, they’re now suing people who pirated the movie they’re being sued for stealing the story for. Brilliant.
Who Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Inglourious Basterds was both a very smart film, with an exciting narrative and interesting characters, and a wholly enjoyable one, not once feeling boring or dragged out, even with most of it being in other languages. Chances of winning: <1%
Deserving Others: The Hangover, Star Trek, and District 9
It’s no surprise that these two films were some of my favorites from last year. The Hangover is one of the best comedies in a long time, and it managed to become nearly universally popular, an accomplishment that comedies struggle to achieve. Star Trek managed to make a new film in an existing series, with new actors, years after even the most recent series ended, and not piss off the entire fanbase. District 9, while not being nearly as edgy and unique as everyone thinks it is, at least it did try a new take on sci-fi and did so while talking about a different racial segregation, rather than doing the overdone and insultingly inaccurate Black American and Native American concepts.
Nominees: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart, George Clooney, Up in the Air, Colin Firth, A Single Man, Morgan Freeman, Invictus, Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.
More or less, a weaker field. After Heath Ledger basically won the Oscar last year by mixing his medication, we had almost an entire year to not have to think about who else might be deserving. This year, we’ve had almost no one stand out. At all.
Winner: Jeff Bridges
You know what I said up there? About no one being a front-runner? It’s not because there isn’t one. It’s because most of you are stupid, and haven’t even heard of Crazy Heart, but simply put, Jeff Bridges knocks the role out of the proverbial park (and does all of the singing, so fuck you Joaquin). Clooney and Firth looked promising early, but Bridges will take home the naked golden dude. Chances of winning: 80%
Dark Horse: Morgan Freeman
Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela? I’ve been waiting on that pairing for years. He does a hell of a job in the role, but so does Bridges, and unfortunately, Nelson Mandela isn’t relevant enough to American audiences to get the extra political commentary boost. Chances of winning: 10%
Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges
Yup. Simply put, he should beat every other nominee hands down.
Deserving Others: Sam Rockwell, Moon, and Robert Downey Jr, Sherlock Holmes
Sam Rockwell plays multiple characters, one of which slowly loses his mind, and does so impeccably. When a movie with a simple plot that has two of the three main characters played by one man is interesting throughout the entire film, you know there’s some serious acting going on.
Conversely, Robert Downey Jr plays Sherlock Holmes, and character we’ve seen countless times, and does so in the midst of a very solid cast, and manages to easily be the center of attention when necessary, but still allow the supporting actors to easily step into the forefront when needed.
Nominees: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side, Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Carey Mulligan, An Education, Gabourey Sidibe, Precious, Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
A very small field, with Bullock and Streep being the only one’s whose movies people have even heard of.
Winner: Sandra Bullock
She’ll win simply because it’s The Blind Side. I have not seen this movie. People always find that weird. I don’t see why. I loved Michael Orr’s story in movie form…last year…on ESPN…during the draft. I don’t want to see a fictionalize account of it, the real thing was perfect. Chances of winning: 80%
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep
Not even because she did a good job, if she did, because I didn’t see that bullshit, but just because it’s been over two decades since she won. The Oscars often go to people that once were great, rather than people who are great now. Chances of winning: 15%
Who Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
Why? Because Bullock will win because of the movie, not because of her acting, Streep might win because of her acting twenty years ago, but when was the last time a heavy-set black woman won? Never. So why the hell not. Chances of winning: 5%
Deserving Others: Zooey Deschanel, 500 Days of Summer, and Ellen Paige, Whip It
I’ll admit it, I love Zooey Deschanel and I don’t hate Ellen Paige, and frankly, Whip It was a good movie. I’ll admit it. Whatever. 500 Days of Summer was decent, but it felt like it fell flat towards the end, but all in all, these two actresses played roles that were interesting in movies that were interesting, more so that the other, significantly older, actresses nominated.
Nominees: Matt Damon, Invictus, Woody Harrelson, The Messenger, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
A fairly solid field, ironic because of how lacking the Lead Actors and Actresses field was.
Winner: Christoph Waltz
A no brainer. He stole the show in Inglourious Basterds, playing a Nazi that was charming and, dare I say it, likeable? Point is, Waltz did a hell of a job in a movie with a ton of known actors and was easily the best of the bunch. Chances of winning: 95%
Dark Horse: Woody Harrleson
Harrleson probably has as much chance for The Messenger as he does for Zombieland, but if Waltz somehow got disqualified, he’d be the next in line. Playing a tough role like that of Cpt. Tony Stone is not an easy thing, but Harrelson pulls it off well. Chances of winning: 5%
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz
As I said above, the dude was excellent in a role that would not generally be considered easy or desirable. A no-brainer.
Deserving Others: Zach Galifianakis, The Hangover, and Zachary Quinto, Star Trek
Two difficult roles, with Galifianakis just having a decidedly odd role that might have been overlooked if played by other actors, and with Quinto just having huge shoes to fill, but both actors did a fantastic job.
Nominees: Penelope Cruz, Nine, Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air, Mo’Nique, Precious
Up in the Air sneaks in two nominees, but other than that, you probably haven’t seen the other three in their respective roles. This is easily the closest vote so far.
Winner: Mo’Nique
Yup. Mo’Nique has the best chance of winning this, and for good reason, he role in Precious as the abusive mother of Gabourey Sidibe’s character was believable and well done. Chances of winning: 50%
Dark Horse: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Let me preface this by saying: I hate Maggie Gyllenhaal. But she actually didn’t do a half bad job in Crazy Heart. Chances of winning: 40%
Who Should Win: Mo’Nique
No role was quite as well done or important to the story as Mo’Nique’s.
Deserving Others: Zoe Saldana, Star Trek and Avatar
In Star Trek, she, like everyone else in the movie, has big shoes to fill, and in Avatar, she’s one of only two really believable characters, of which only hers actually has the entire movie riding on it’s back. Without her, Avatar falls completely flat, instead of only mostly.
Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up
All are considered very good films, with Up having the Pixar edge and The Princess and the Frog having both the Disney and minority edge.
Winner: Up
Like I said, the Pixar edge is firmly in Animated-Feel-Good-Dramadey’s corner, and that should be enough to win. People gushed about this movie the same way they did Wall-E, so don’t expect it to lose. Chances of winning: 80%
Dark Horse: Fantastic Mr. Fox
‘Fox’ is a throwback of animation, harkening back to the days of stop motion, with a sold cast of voice actors. Hard to argue it, but don’t expect it to beat Up. Chances of winning: 15%
Who Should Win/Deserving Others: Ponyo
This should win. Period. Simply put, it’s Miyazaki’s take on The Little Mermaid. How is this not even nominated?
Nominees: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and The White Ribbon
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Deserving Others: The White Ribbon
The Hurt Locker will win for being the political flavor of the month, but Basterds could win as a nod to Tarantino for the lack of a best picture win. The White Ribbon is probably most deserving though.
Nominees: James Cameron, Avatar, Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds, Lee Daniels, Precious, and Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Winner: James Cameron
Dark Horse: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Deserving Others: Duncan Jones, Moon
Cameron will probably win, Bigelow could, neither deserve it, Tarantino and Jones would be a tough match up, with the nod going either way on that one.
Nominees: Avatar, James Horner, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat, The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer, and Up, Michael Giacchino
Winner: Up
Dark Horse: Avatar
Should Win: Sherlock Holmes
Deserving Others: Anvil! The Story of Anvil
Hans Zimmer should win, but outside of that, if you don’t know Anvil, you need to find out, seriously.
Winner: Inglourious Basterds
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Winner: Up in the Air
Dark Horse: District 9
Should Win: Precious
Winner: Avatar
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Sherlock Holmes
Winner: Avatar
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Star Trek
Winner: Avatar
Dark Horse: Star Trek
Should Win: Avatar
Winner: Star Trek
Dark Horse: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Star Trek
I pretty much agree with all that. I hate the Oscars. Majority of the stuff nominated, I haven't seen/heard of/found interesting enough to consider watching. Nothing actually good is ever nominated anymore and if it is, it doesn't win.
Funny, the only things up for Oscars that I've seen are Up, District 9, and Avatar. The others just didn't appeal to me at all.
Wow…. To each and their own opinions right? I'm going to keep my mouth shut on this one lols. But just one thing, watch the movie before having any opinion on it.
First off, it's not for you to agree with. I couldn't care less. It's MY take on the Oscars, not the people's take. Duh.
Second, if you're "going to keep [your] mouth shut," do so, if not, at least specify which one you disagree with. I mean come on, don't try the passive aggressive approach, just straight up tell me. I only mention having not seen two of the movies, so either you're making assumptions, or you're getting offended over a film that you really don't have a right to be offended over. Not that any of them are your work anyway. Just sayin'
you were spot on with most of the people who won
Damn right Jeff Bridges! Woot.
Bridges deserved to win more than anyone else up there, fo sho
If it is not for people to agree with, why you write this article?
Are you serious? Do you not understand how writing works? "Why you write this article" is to get people to read it. If they agree, fine, if they disagree, fine, I'd prefer you to disagree and talk about it rather than be a pussy about it and passive aggressively attempt to convey your disagreement without being forced to man up and actually say what you disagree with. You're a man aren't you? Then straight up tell me, don't beat around the bush.
What it boils down to though, my friend, is an OPINION piece is, indeed, an OPINION piece. If you don't like my opinion, you certainly could have written it yourself. But you didn't, and neither did anyone else, so I wrote this with a three hour deadline until the Oscars premiered, and got it done with an hour to spare. No one else here at TGZ has even written on a deadline yet, much less beat it. So I didn't have time to go back and watch every film again (or the first time for a few), but I did my absolute best to study up on every film shown. Again, no one else did that. I can easily form an opinion without having to see a film, as can anyone. I'm sure you judge the latest straight to DVD Barbie adventure movie to be shit before seeing it, don't you? Of course you do. If people didn't judge books by their covers, there wouldn't be a "words of wisdom" phrase telling you not to do so.
But really, what it boils down to is, if you don't like my opinion, I don't fucking care. My opinion is right…for me. Yours is right for you. Opinions are a dime a dozen and one cannot be wrong. It's impossible. If you have something to add to the discussion, feel free to do so. Otherwise, keep your mouth shut, because your only wasting everyone's time by not being willing to discuss the very thing you take issue with.
tl;dr version: hurr durr just say it already, jesus
nick's right. everyone has an opinion. but to be vague about what your pissy about seeks only to make yourself seem like a ass.
David: There are basically two ihroetes out there at this point, and both have Kathryn Bigelow winning the Best Director prize. The first theory is that THE HURT LOCKER will overcome its meagre box-office performances and come away with the big prize, almost on the coat tails of Ms. Bigelow, much in the way that THE DEPARTED won a few years ago as a kind of extension of Scorsese’s popular win as Best Director. The fact that THE HURT LOCKER has won the five most significant critics’ prizes (New York, Los Angeles, National Society, Boston and Chicago) has the effect of impressing on the Oscar voters that this is a seriously important’ film. Of course, Cameron himself, with his big ego, is not particularly popular with Oscar voters, and he’s already taken home the big prize once before. Also, in a general sense, the Best Picture and Best Director prizes usually go to the same film. I stress usually’ here, not always’ as we’ve had more than a few occasions where they’ve split.The other scenario is the one broach here where AVATAR, a spectacularly popular film, will take home the Best Picture prize in large measure because everyone has seen the film, and it has rejuvenated the industry in a number of ways that will impact many well into the future. In this situation, Bigelow would still win Best Director, as many do want to award this prize to a woman, and she’s a scaled back and humble artist. I am not sure definitively which of the two will unfold, but it should become more apparent in the upcoming weeks.I too David applaud the unexpected if ceremonial inclusion of A SERIOUS MAN in the main category, as I do UP and DISTRICT 9, but like you I am dumbfounded if not downright angry that Abbie Cornish, Paul Schneider, Jane Campion and BRIGHT STAR my favorite film of the year was ignored.Sam, though I know it would offend you greatly I’m still secretly routing for an Inglourious Basterds upset for Best Pic (it did win the SAG for best ensemble) though even in that scenario I still see Bigelow walking home with Oscar. DHS
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