Instead, in this article, we’re going to look at the nominees for the 2010 Cinemasturbation Awards, and determine who was nominated, who will win, who could potentially pull off the upset, who should win, and, occasionally, an unnominated deserving candidate, for the biggest categories that will receive attention tonight (but definitely not the technical awards that are done, unrecorded, on Saturday, that no one ever hears about, because fuck those awards).

Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air

Dances With Smurfs, Explosive Ordinance Disposal, and the 2010 iteration of Animated-Feel-Good-Dramadey.

Winner: Avatar

Is anyone really surprised by this? Avatar would have won even before it came out. I won’t go into the details on why I detest Avatar, because it’s be covered before by better writers than I, but I’ll simply say, I’m not a fan. Chances of winning: 95%

Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker

Another movie that people can’t seem to shut the fuck up about. Though I haven’t seen it, The Hurt Locker is often compared to Dr. Strangelove, itself a brilliant film. The difference is, The Hurt Locker is a politically charged movie without any politics in it. If you’re going to be a satirical commentary, you have to have satire, and if you want to be a serious take on a serious war, you may want to try mentioning it. Chances of winning: 5%

Hindsight is 20/20 Update: Though The Hurt Locker somehow won, they’re now suing people who pirated the movie they’re being sued for stealing the story for. Brilliant.

Who Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

Inglourious Basterds was both a very smart film, with an exciting narrative and interesting characters, and a wholly enjoyable one, not once feeling boring or dragged out, even with most of it being in other languages. Chances of winning: <1%

Deserving Others: The Hangover, Star Trek, and District 9

It’s no surprise that these two films were some of my favorites from last year. The Hangover is one of the best comedies in a long time, and it managed to become nearly universally popular, an accomplishment that comedies struggle to achieve. Star Trek managed to make a new film in an existing series, with new actors, years after even the most recent series ended, and not piss off the entire fanbase. District 9, while not being nearly as edgy and unique as everyone thinks it is, at least it did try a new take on sci-fi and did so while talking about a different racial segregation, rather than doing the overdone and insultingly inaccurate Black American and Native American concepts.

Nominees: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart, George Clooney, Up in the Air, Colin Firth, A Single Man, Morgan Freeman, Invictus, Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

More or less, a weaker field. After Heath Ledger basically won the Oscar last year by mixing his medication, we had almost an entire year to not have to think about who else might be deserving. This year, we’ve had almost no one stand out. At all.

Winner: Jeff Bridges

You know what I said up there? About no one being a front-runner? It’s not because there isn’t one. It’s because most of you are stupid, and haven’t even heard of Crazy Heart, but simply put, Jeff Bridges knocks the role out of the proverbial park (and does all of the singing, so fuck you Joaquin). Clooney and Firth looked promising early, but Bridges will take home the naked golden dude. Chances of winning: 80%

Dark Horse: Morgan Freeman

Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela? I’ve been waiting on that pairing for years. He does a hell of a job in the role, but so does Bridges, and unfortunately, Nelson Mandela isn’t relevant enough to American audiences to get the extra political commentary boost. Chances of winning: 10%

Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Yup. Simply put, he should beat every other nominee hands down.

Deserving Others: Sam Rockwell, Moon, and Robert Downey Jr, Sherlock Holmes

Sam Rockwell plays multiple characters, one of which slowly loses his mind, and does so impeccably. When a movie with a simple plot that has two of the three main characters played by one man is interesting throughout the entire film, you know there’s some serious acting going on.

Conversely, Robert Downey Jr plays Sherlock Holmes, and character we’ve seen countless times, and does so in the midst of a very solid cast, and manages to easily be the center of attention when necessary, but still allow the supporting actors to easily step into the forefront when needed.

Nominees: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side, Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Carey Mulligan, An Education, Gabourey Sidibe, Precious, Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

A very small field, with Bullock and Streep being the only one’s whose movies people have even heard of.

Winner: Sandra Bullock

She’ll win simply because it’s The Blind Side. I have not seen this movie. People always find that weird. I don’t see why. I loved Michael Orr’s story in movie form…last year…on ESPN…during the draft. I don’t want to see a fictionalize account of it, the real thing was perfect. Chances of winning: 80%

Dark Horse: Meryl Streep

Not even because she did a good job, if she did, because I didn’t see that bullshit, but just because it’s been over two decades since she won. The Oscars often go to people that once were great, rather than people who are great now. Chances of winning: 15%

Who Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe

Why? Because Bullock will win because of the movie, not because of her acting, Streep might win because of her acting twenty years ago, but when was the last time a heavy-set black woman won? Never. So why the hell not. Chances of winning: 5%

Deserving Others: Zooey Deschanel, 500 Days of Summer, and Ellen Paige, Whip It

I’ll admit it, I love Zooey Deschanel and I don’t hate Ellen Paige, and frankly, Whip It was a good movie. I’ll admit it. Whatever. 500 Days of Summer was decent, but it felt like it fell flat towards the end, but all in all, these two actresses played roles that were interesting in movies that were interesting, more so that the other, significantly older, actresses nominated.

Nominees: Matt Damon, Invictus, Woody Harrelson, The Messenger, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

A fairly solid field, ironic because of how lacking the Lead Actors and Actresses field was.

Winner: Christoph Waltz

A no brainer. He stole the show in Inglourious Basterds, playing a Nazi that was charming and, dare I say it, likeable? Point is, Waltz did a hell of a job in a movie with a ton of known actors and was easily the best of the bunch. Chances of winning: 95%

Dark Horse: Woody Harrleson

Harrleson probably has as much chance for The Messenger as he does for Zombieland, but if Waltz somehow got disqualified, he’d be the next in line. Playing a tough role like that of Cpt. Tony Stone is not an easy thing, but Harrelson pulls it off well. Chances of winning: 5%

Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz

As I said above, the dude was excellent in a role that would not generally be considered easy or desirable. A no-brainer.

Deserving Others: Zach Galifianakis, The Hangover, and Zachary Quinto, Star Trek

Two difficult roles, with Galifianakis just having a decidedly odd role that might have been overlooked if played by other actors, and with Quinto just having huge shoes to fill, but both actors did a fantastic job.

Nominees: Penelope Cruz, Nine, Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air, Mo’Nique, Precious

Up in the Air sneaks in two nominees, but other than that, you probably haven’t seen the other three in their respective roles. This is easily the closest vote so far.

Winner: Mo’Nique

Yup. Mo’Nique has the best chance of winning this, and for good reason, he role in Precious as the abusive mother of Gabourey Sidibe’s character was believable and well done. Chances of winning: 50%

Dark Horse: Maggie Gyllenhaal

Let me preface this by saying: I hate Maggie Gyllenhaal. But she actually didn’t do a half bad job in Crazy Heart. Chances of winning: 40%

Who Should Win: Mo’Nique

No role was quite as well done or important to the story as Mo’Nique’s.

Deserving Others: Zoe Saldana, Star Trek and Avatar

In Star Trek, she, like everyone else in the movie, has big shoes to fill, and in Avatar, she’s one of only two really believable characters, of which only hers actually has the entire movie riding on it’s back. Without her, Avatar falls completely flat, instead of only mostly.

Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up

All are considered very good films, with Up having the Pixar edge and The Princess and the Frog having both the Disney and minority edge.

Winner: Up

Like I said, the Pixar edge is firmly in Animated-Feel-Good-Dramadey’s corner, and that should be enough to win. People gushed about this movie the same way they did Wall-E, so don’t expect it to lose. Chances of winning: 80%

Dark Horse: Fantastic Mr. Fox

‘Fox’ is a throwback of animation, harkening back to the days of stop motion, with a sold cast of voice actors. Hard to argue it, but don’t expect it to beat Up. Chances of winning: 15%

Who Should Win/Deserving Others: Ponyo

This should win. Period. Simply put, it’s Miyazaki’s take on The Little Mermaid. How is this not even nominated?

Nominees: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and The White Ribbon

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

Deserving Others: The White Ribbon

The Hurt Locker will win for being the political flavor of the month, but Basterds could win as a nod to Tarantino for the lack of a best picture win. The White Ribbon is probably most deserving though.

Nominees: James Cameron, Avatar, Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds, Lee Daniels, Precious, and Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Winner: James Cameron

Dark Horse: Kathryn Bigelow

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino

Deserving Others: Duncan Jones, Moon

Cameron will probably win, Bigelow could, neither deserve it, Tarantino and Jones would be a tough match up, with the nod going either way on that one.

Nominees: Avatar, James Horner, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat, The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer, and Up, Michael Giacchino

Winner: Up

Dark Horse: Avatar

Should Win: Sherlock Holmes

Deserving Others: Anvil! The Story of Anvil

Hans Zimmer should win, but outside of that, if you don’t know Anvil, you need to find out, seriously.

Winner: Inglourious Basterds
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

Winner: Up in the Air
Dark Horse: District 9
Should Win: Precious

Winner: Avatar
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Sherlock Holmes

Winner: Avatar
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Star Trek

Winner: Avatar
Dark Horse: Star Trek
Should Win: Avatar

Winner: Star Trek
Dark Horse: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Star Trek